How to Handle Seasonal Demand in Beverage Logistics

As we know from our own buying habits, beverage sales surge dramatically during peak seasons – spending in UK pubs tripled on the day of the Euro 2024 final! Whether it’s summer spritzing at events or the festive rush for darker drinks, seasonal variability offers massive opportunities to grow revenue for independent drinks producers.

But, navigating these fluctuations requires careful planning. An unprepared supply chain can swiftly turn seasonal highs into operational chaos, with overstocked warehouses, missed deliveries and unhappy customers.

In this guide, we’ll explore the biggest challenges seasonal demand brings to beverage logistics and provide actionable steps to prepare your business for those high-demand periods. With the right strategies, seasonal demand can be your opportunity to shine, not stumble.

When Is Beverage Season?

In the UK, demand for drinks undergoes major changes throughout the year, with variations by drink type. Some of the most notable peaks occur during the summer months, the Christmas season, and major sporting events.

Summer Months

The British summer, typically spanning June to August, is synonymous with outdoor gatherings, festivals and barbecues, creating a surge in beverage demand.

Alcoholic drinks see one of the most pronounced uplifts, particularly for beer and cider. Just this summer, as a heatwave drove consumers to beer gardens across the nation, beer sales spiked 10.4% and cider shot up 39.6%.

But soft drinks are also at the mercy of the British weather. During the 2018 summer heatwave – the hottest summer on record up to 2023 – soft drink sales in independent convenience outlets were 84% higher in July compared to January.

Major events like music festivals contribute to this seasonal uptick. Attendees spend an average of £32.27 per day on alcohol, contributing over £100 million annually to alcohol sales.

Christmas Season

As many of us have experienced first hand, the festive season in the UK brings a big bump in alcohol sales, with nearly a quarter (22%) of total beer sales occurring during the 12 weeks leading up to Christmas.

Unsurprisingly, premium beverages also experience demand spikes at this time of year, with champagne sales reported to rise by 18% during the Christmas season. Another trending festive favourite is stout, which saw a 26.8% uplift in value and a 10.3% increase in volume in convenience stores in 2023.

In recent years, even Christmas has not escaped the growing movement towards low- and no-alcohol options. Last year, 41% of drinkers sought lower alcohol or alcohol-free alternatives during the festive period, reflecting a broader trend towards moderation that’s likely to hold in 2024.

In short, the Christmas period is the peak season across many drinks categories in the UK, particularly premium alcoholic drinks, like champagne and prosecco, and seasonal favourites, like eggnog, port or cream liquors.

Sporting Events

Major sporting events also drive increased beverage consumption. During the Euro 2024 final, spending in UK pubs, bars and nightclubs nearly tripled compared to the previous year, with payment transactions up by 195.6% on the day of the final. The British Beer and Pub Association estimated that England's progress through the tournament was worth £227 million in additional beer sales!

But it’s not just football – the 2024 Autumn Rugby Internationals are thought to have led to a big jump in demand for beverages like Guinness, with keg volumes increasing by 20% year-on-year in October. And, during the Six Nations Rugby Championship in 2022, it's estimated that 24.5 million pints were sold across the tournament, providing approximately £100 million in revenue for the pub sector.

‍

A strong understanding of seasonal demand patterns is key to effective supply chain management, but seasonality isn’t one-size-fits-all. Seasonal demand for drinks varies by drink type (even within categories), market, and even the weather.

The only answer is a careful analysis of your own historical data in combination with broader trends to ensure you’re prepared for the unique dynamics of your products and audience.

What Are the Biggest Challenges of Seasonal Demand?

Seasonal demand offers incredible opportunities, but it also brings unique challenges that can stretch even the most efficient operations. For beverage producers, the stakes are high – delivering the right products, in the right quantities, to the right places is critical to capturing seasonal revenue.

Before we share some of our top tips for preparedness, let’s first outline some of the biggest hurdles that come with navigating seasonal peaks:

Forecasting Accuracy

Accurate predictions of demand during seasonal peaks are one of the biggest challenges faced by beverage producers. The drinks industry is particularly vulnerable to external factors – like unpredictable weather patterns – playing an outsized role.

As we’ve seen, a sudden heatwave can send demand for beer, cider and soft drinks soaring, while an unseasonably cool summer may leave producers overstocked with products intended for outdoor events.

Adding to the complexity, consumer preferences are always evolving. The rise in low- and no-alcohol options, for instance, has shifted traditional consumption patterns, and health-conscious trends are likely to further alter demand in the future. Producers are forced to balance historical data with assumptions on emerging trends to avoid costly missteps like overproduction or stock shortages.

And getting it wrong has serious consequences: excess inventory leads to increased storage costs and wasted product, while underestimating demand risks lost sales and damaged customer relationships.

Supply Chain Constraints

For independent beverage producers, supply chain constraints can create a perfect storm during peak seasons. The mismatch between demand signals and lead times for natural raw materials is a major challenge. Ingredients like hops, fruits or botanicals often have long procurement timelines, making it difficult to respond quickly to unexpected demand surges.

Seasonal availability further complicates matters, as many ingredients are tied to specific harvest periods. Alternatively, producers who rely on imported materials face other hurdles, including customs delays and rising transportation costs, amplified by unpredictable global disruptions like Brexit and COVID-19.

Labour shortages also disrupt production schedules. In 2022, nearly 30% of UK food and beverage businesses reported worker shortages, straining supply chains and driving up costs. For smaller producers working locally with limited resources, labour constraints can be particularly damaging and difficult to overcome.

Inventory Management

Although many alcoholic beverages have a decent shelf life, many drinks are still perishable inventory. Rigid or suboptimal inventory management can lead to spoilage, resulting in financial losses.

A seasonal surge can tempt producers towards overstocking, but overstocking ties up capital and increases the risk of product expiration. On the other hand, stockouts can lead to lost sales and dissatisfied customers, as well as expedited shipping costs, rush orders, and other logistical challenges as businesses scramble to restock popular items.

For independent producers especially, it can be a real challenge to balance inventory and meet fluctuating demand without overextending limited resources.

Transportation Bottlenecks

As consumer demand ramps up across many sectors towards Christmas, transportation can quickly become a critical bottleneck. The sharp increase in demand places immense pressure on freight networks, creating fierce competition for transportation capacity.

The first major challenge is the increase in freight costs. According to the ​​TEG Road Transport Price Index, road transportation rates can rise by between 5-10% from November to December alone. For breweries relying on 3PLs or couriers, this often means paying premium rates to secure delivery slots, particularly for short-notice orders.

An in-house fleet poses its own difficulties. Higher delivery volumes can overwhelm available vehicles, while seasonal traffic congestion in urban areas like London further delays deliveries, adding costs and operational strain. Hiring temporary drivers or leasing extra vehicles can help, but these options also come at a premium during the busiest time of the year.

Without careful planning, these issues can disrupt delivery schedules and erode profitability.

Quality Concerns

During peak seasons, it’s more difficult than ever to maintain the quality of beverages throughout the supply chain. High order volumes and tight schedules can strain logistics operations, so ensuring that your product reaches venues and consumers in optimal condition requires extra vigilance.

One major concern is timely deliveries. Delays caused by traffic congestion or overburdened distribution networks can result in products spending too long in transit or sitting in suboptimal storage conditions. For perishable drinks, this can lead to lost freshness, a change in the intended flavour profile, or even expiration before reaching customers.

Another common problem is handling: during high-demand periods, the rush to meet delivery deadlines can lead to improper handling. Cases of wine or spirits may be stacked incorrectly, causing damage to packaging, while carbonated drinks can be excessively agitated in transit, resulting in customer complaints upon delivery.

How to Prepare for High Seasons

We’ve covered some of the major challenges that drinks businesses face in peak seasons. But the good news? With the right strategies in place, you can navigate these challenges effectively and turn seasonal peaks into growth opportunities.

Here are the most important steps you can take to prepare for high seasons and ensure your operations run smoothly during peak demand.

Tailor Your Offering

Seasonal products are a proven way to boost sales, but they can also help streamline operations during high seasons. By strategically tailoring your offerings to align with consumer needs, you can manage both sales and logistics more effectively.

What do we mean? Here are a few examples:

• For the On-Trade: Seasonal lines – like a winter stout or summer cider – can help make demand patterns more predictable. Venues appreciate the novelty of limited-edition products, which can secure valuable tap or shelf space, but it can also simplify forecasting by focusing demand on fewer SKUs.
• For the Off-Trade: Seasonal packaging is your friend. Larger packs designed for gatherings, such as 12-packs of beer for summer or gift-ready sets for Christmas, cater to demand while reducing the number of individual units to handle. For retailers, these products stand out on shelves, making them a win-win for both visibility and your operations.
• For DTC: The gifting seasons present opportunities to consolidate logistics and attract higher-value orders through bundled promotions. For instance, a “holiday celebration pack” that includes a mix of your seasonal bestsellers can encourage bulk purchases, reducing the complexity of managing single-item shipments.

Of course, this is a delicate balance: while seasonal products can make demand more focused and predictable, limited-edition products also complicate supply chains by their very nature. You may need a couple of years of data to make this strategy pay off.

However, by designing your product mix with both sales potential and operational efficiency in mind, you can make seasonal highs more manageable while delivering a standout experience to your customers.

Build Accurate Forecasts

In supply chain management, so much depends on getting your forecasts right, from production schedules to sales plans.

Of course, this is a complex topic and we can’t fix your forecasting in one blog post. But, if you feel that you’re lagging behind, here are a few actionable strategies to help bring up your forecasting accuracy:

Leverage Historical Data

The first step is simply to dig into your existing historical data.

• Year-over-Year Analysis: Compare sales data from the same period in previous years to identify recurring patterns and seasonal trends. This is ground zero in terms of understanding seasonality and planning inventory accordingly.
• Moving Averages: But don’t stop there – you should also adjust forecasts to account for recent demand. Moving averages can help to smooth out short-term fluctuations and highlight longer-term trends. This method captures broader growth that may not be evident through simple seasonality adjustments.
• Adjust for Promotions: Isolate the impact of past promotional activities to prevent skewed forecasts. Adjusting historical data to remove promotional effects ensures that your system doesn’t over-forecast following a big promotion.

Incorporate External Factors

With only internal data, you’re likely to miss the big shifts that can completely change the direction of your business or even the industry. We strongly recommend adjusting your forecasts based on external data, even if these are simple guesstimates.

Here are a few ideas:

• Weather Forecasts: Integrate short-term weather predictions into your demand planning. Weather forecasts are generally reliable for short-term planning (up to 10 days), making them useful for adjusting immediate inventory needs where lead times are low.
• Market Trends: Stay informed about industry trends and consumer preferences that may affect demand for specific products. Monitoring market dynamics allows for proactive adjustments in your forecasting models. You can use industry-specific reports from sources like the British Beer and Pub Association (BBPA) or SIBA, or broader market data from sources like NielsenIQ. If you want to keep it simple, you can even try using free tools like Google Trends.
• Public Events and Holidays: As we’ve seen, sporting and other events can lead to sizable spikes in the demand for drinks. Try pulling data from the UK Government’s official calendar of public holidays, event databases like Eventbrite, or sporting calendars from sources like the Premier League.
• Social Media Trends: Social media offers us more data straight from consumers than ever before. Try social listening tools like Brandwatch or Brand24 to monitor mentions of your brand, as well as mentions of specific competitors, drink types, etc – the options are endless.

Use Advanced Forecasting Tools

To an extent, all of the above is reinventing the wheel. For many drinks producers, there are already specialised software options that can streamline forecasting processes and improve accuracy.

For example, in the case of breweries, many brewery management systems offer integrated forecasting capabilities:

• Breww: Perfect for UK breweries, Breww is super user-friendly and built with the local market in mind. It’s great for smaller breweries looking to streamline production and sales, though it might take a bit of practice to unlock its more advanced features.
• Ollie: Popular in the US, Ollie focuses on simplifying the craft beer production process. It’s ideal if you’re big on brewing but might not offer the best integration options for more complex setups.
• Ekos: A solid all-rounder that handles everything from inventory to accounting. It’s a crowd-splitter, with many finding that it’s powerful but difficult to get on with.
• Beer30: All about the data. If you want to dig deep into analytics and boost efficiency, this is the tool for you. The downside? Its interface isn’t the most intuitive, so be prepared for a bit of a learning curve.

If you’re happy to pay for better forecasts, this is the easiest route. These systems can automate data collection, provide real-time analytics, and generate more accurate forecasts, allowing you to focus on strategic decision-making.

Upgrade Your Spreadsheets

We get it: some of you are most comfortable with a trusty spreadsheet. If this is you, our recommendation is to try to build on your existing spreadsheet model to move beyond simple linear predictions.

Here are some options to try:

• Explore Functions: You may already be familiar with the FORECAST function, but Excel has many more options hidden away. For example, try using the FORECAST.ETS function. Unlike FORECAST, which assumes a simple straight-line trend, FORECAST.ETS can model seasonality and recurring patterns in your data – perfect for businesses with fluctuating demand.
• Go Beyond Functions: Excel isn’t just for basic calculations – it’s a powerhouse of forecasting and modeling tools waiting to be explored. Take a look at the Forecast Sheet or Data Analysis Toolpak to open up even more possibilities for building robust models, complete with confidence intervals and trend analysis.
• Leave Excel: If you’re using Excel because you prefer to manage your own data and custom tools, there are still customisable forecasting options out there. For example, if you’re comfortable with code or have a developer in-house, you could try libraries like Facebook Prophet, which can handle complex seasonal effects and provide reliable, adjustable forecasts.

By experimenting with these tools, you can elevate your spreadsheet game and develop forecasts that are both dynamic and data-driven. Start small, explore, and build better forecasts.

Make a Sales Plan

A well-constructed sales plan is more than just a tool for hitting revenue targets – it’s essential for aligning sales, production, and logistics teams. By integrating clear priorities and timelines, a sales plan ensures that operations run smoothly during seasonal peaks.

Here’s how it helps:

• Demand Forecasting and Resource Allocation: A good sales plan offers clarity on expected demand, enabling logistics teams to allocate drivers, vehicles, and warehouse staff efficiently.
• Transportation and Delivery Planning: If you break down expected demand by geography, it allows for efficient route planning and grouped shipments, cutting costs and reducing delivery times. Early planning also helps secure extra transportation capacity with third-party providers well in advance.
• Promo Impact: With a clear promotional calendar, logistics teams can prepare for demand surges, aligning inventory management with promotional campaigns and pre-positioning stock closer to affected regions to ensure fast delivery.
• Communication and Scenario Planning: A sales plan encourages collaboration across teams – everyone knows what’s happening and can make proactive adjustments when disruptions or unexpected demand arise.

By making sales objectives clear to your operations team, your sales plan becomes a roadmap for operational success when the stakes are at their highest.

Overcommunicate

When it comes to managing seasonal peaks, communication isn’t just helpful – it’s essential. Clear, frequent communication across the supply chain ensures everyone is aligned and ready to handle the increased demand.

From suppliers to venues and everyone in between, keeping all parties in the loop can make the difference between smooth operations and logistical chaos.

• Start by talking upstream to your producers, raw material suppliers, etc: Share your forecasts, anticipated order volumes, and timing requirements. Joint forecasting and replenishment with key partners creates alignment, helping to reduce lead times and ensure stock availability. Studies on Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment (CPFR) consistently show that synchronised planning leads to more accurate forecasts and greater supply chain efficiency.
• Then, communicate downstream with venues, retailers, and other customers: Confirm order timelines, delivery expectations, and any changes in schedules or requirements. For example, a pub preparing for a major sporting event will appreciate the assurance that their beer delivery will arrive on time.

Overcommunication might feel like overkill, but it’s a proven strategy for keeping seasonal operations running smoothly. When everyone knows what’s happening and when, your supply chain becomes a more cohesive, reliable system – just when you need it most.

Optimise Your Inventory

Seasonal peaks can make or break your business, and your inventory strategy is at the heart of it all. Whether it’s ensuring you have enough stock to meet demand or avoiding wasted space and product, optimising your inventory can save time, money, and headaches when it matters most.

For most drinks producers, a well optimised inventory is all about implementing the basics and striking the right balance between being lean and being prepared. Here’s how:

• Optimise Your Warehouse: Organise your storage space so high-demand products are easily accessible, reducing picking times. Use vertical shelving to maximise space and ensure FIFO (First In, First Out) methods are followed to keep stock fresh.
• Streamline Picking and Packing: Group similar orders to reduce picking times and pre-pack popular seasonal items to speed up fulfilment. If you’re not already using barcoding, it’s a simple upgrade that boosts efficiency and accuracy during busy periods.
• Track Inventory Accurately: Use inventory systems that track batch numbers and expiry dates to minimise waste and ensure freshness. Real-time stock updates prevent discrepancies and help flag slow-moving items for clearance or repurposing.
• Plan Safety Stock Wisely: Rather than broadly overstocking, focus your buffer inventory on top-performing SKUs or critical items with longer lead times. Align safety stock levels with realistic sales forecasts to avoid clogging storage with excess products.
• Prepare for Returns: Designate a specific area in your warehouse for returns to avoid disruption to active inventory. Inspect returned goods promptly so they can be restocked or flagged, keeping your inventory data accurate.

By nailing these key areas, you’ll keep your inventory lean, your operations smooth, and your customers happy – even when demand is at its peak.

Prioritise Flexibility

When seasonal peaks hit, the ability to pivot quickly can make the difference between meeting demand and falling behind. Flexibility in your operations allows you to adapt to the unexpected and keep your customers happy.

Here’s how to stay agile:

• Rethink Transportation Options: Relying on a single transport method or provider can cause bottlenecks. Explore diverse delivery options – road, rail or even sea; couriers or last-mile providers – to keep things moving during busy periods. Backup carriers can be a lifeline when regular partners are stretched thin. Test these alternatives during quieter months to ensure they’re ready when you need them.
• Leverage Scalable Warehousing: Fixed storage isn’t always enough for peak demand. Flexible solutions, like partnering with a 3PL or using short-term warehouse rentals, let you expand capacity without overcommitting. Plan ahead with providers to secure space and avoid unexpected surcharges.
• Adopt Agile Production Planning: Being flexible in production allows you to scale up or down quickly. Use smaller batch sizes during uncertain periods to gauge demand before committing to larger runs. Close alignment with sales forecasts is key to making this work.
• Invest in Real-Time Data: Real-time access to inventory and logistics data helps you adapt faster to challenges. Whether it’s monitoring stock levels, tracking shipments, or reallocating resources, visibility is critical for quick decision-making.
• Test Backup Plans Early: Don’t wait for a crisis to discover that your fallback isn’t reliable. Trial alternative suppliers, routes, or 3PL providers during off-peak times to identify weak spots and fine-tune your plans.

Flexibility isn’t just about preparing for the worst – it’s about staying nimble enough to seize opportunities, even when demand is at its most unpredictable. By building adaptability into your operations, you’ll be ready to handle whatever the season throws at you.

Have a Fallback

Even with the best planning, seasonal peaks are unpredictable, and things don’t always go to plan. That’s when you’ll be grateful for a solid fallback strategy. Being ready for the unexpected means you can react quickly and keep operations on track when disruptions arise.

• Run “What-If” Simulations: Use scenario planning to anticipate sudden demand shifts, supplier disruptions, or transport bottlenecks. By testing your response to potential challenges, you can refine your contingency plans and identify gaps before they become problems.
• Pre-Plan Alternative Suppliers and Carriers: Keep a list of backup suppliers and logistics providers you trust. Discuss expectations and capacity ahead of time so you’re ready to switch if your primary partners can’t meet demand. Test these options in off-seasons to ensure they are reliable.
• Build Emergency Stock Levels Strategically: Safety stock is useful, but it’s more effective when paired with a clear plan for deployment. Focus your fallback inventory on high-demand products or those with the longest lead times to protect your most valuable sales channels.
• Ensure Team Readiness: A fallback plan is only as good as the people executing it. Cross-train staff to handle different roles, and regularly review procedures to ensure everyone knows what to do in an emergency.

Operational research backs it up: supply chains with pre-planned contingencies are more resilient, require fewer last-minute fixes, and deliver better service under pressure. By investing time in creating and testing a fallback strategy, you can turn the unpredictable into just another part of your playbook.

How Did It Go?

So, you made it – well done! High seasons can feel like a marathon, but the finish line isn’t the end. The smartest producers know that what happens next is just as important as all the planning and execution. Post-season analysis is your chance to learn from what worked, fix what didn’t, and come back even stronger next time.

Here’s how to get the most out of your post-season review:

• Dive Into the Data: Start with a detailed review of your numbers. Compare actual sales to forecasts, assess lead-time variances, and analyse inventory turnover. Did costs spiral out of control? Were there bottlenecks you didn’t expect? This data is gold for refining future strategies.
• Assess Operational Performance: Look at the big picture. How did your demand forecasts hold up? Were inventory levels on point, or did you over- or understock? Review transportation performance – were deliveries on time, and did any routes or providers let you down? Pinpointing these areas ensures smoother operations next season.
• Refine Forecasting Models: Take what you’ve learned to fine-tune your demand forecasting. Update your models to account for anomalies or new trends and adjust safety stock levels where needed. The goal is to make your forecasts smarter and more reliable year on year.
• Incorporate Customer Feedback: Don’t forget to check in with your customers. Whether it’s feedback from retailers, venues or direct consumers, their insights can reveal gaps or opportunities you might have missed internally.
• Make It a Habit: Continuous improvement frameworks like PDCA (Plan, Do, Check, Act) are perfect for this stage. Use the lessons from this year to drive iterative changes that sharpen your processes over time.

Learning from the season’s highs and lows is what separates good drinks businesses from great ones. By turning experience into insight, you’re setting your business up for an even better run next year.

Make This High Season Your High Season

Seasonal demand can supercharge your growth – if your operations can keep up. At Tap’in, we help beverage producers turn high-pressure peaks into smooth, profitable opportunities.

Whether you’re preparing for the summer sun or gearing up for the festive season, our tailored drinks logistics solutions ensure your supply chain runs like clockwork.

With Tap’in, you’ll benefit from:

• Flexible warehousing solutions that scale with your needs during peak seasons.
• Seamless order fulfilment and reliable delivery across the UK.
• Real-time inventory management to help you stay ahead of demand.
• Dynamic transport solutions to handle fluctuating delivery volumes with precision and speed.

Let Tap’in take the stress out of seasonal demand, so you can focus on crafting exceptional beverages and delighting customers.

Ready to thrive during your next peak season? Get in touch today to explore how our logistics expertise can elevate your operations!